This is a tough year to seed Nationals, if only because there is so much parity among teams and so much disparity between some teams' skill level and their season performance. Without too much buildup, this is how I would seed Nationals:
1) Florida - the undisputed #1, only one loss all season was to Arizona at Vegas on universe point. Brodie is healthy now, and they won Centex and the AC to earn this seed.
2) Colorado - they came to play at Centex. With Martin back they only lost to Georgia, a perennial tough game for them, and Florida 13-15 in the semis. They deservedly beat Michigan in the 3rd place game, a game where both team were going 100% to win. Giving the edge to their results later in the season and their performance at Nationals the past few years, they earn this seed over Michigan and Wisconsin.
3) Michigan - Michigan placed 4th at Centex and won Regionals handily. They had a huge Centex with wins over Wisconsin and Arizona. Universe point losses to UNC and Colorado hurt, but they're still a dominant team behind Ryan Purcell, Will Neff, and a cadre of strong sophomores.
4) Wisconsin - It seems strange to seed them so low, but they lost 3 games at Centex to Nationals teams. The two games they lost that mattered are to two teams ahead of them. Their other loss is to Pittsburgh and was in consolation. Wisconsin recovered well and won Regionals, giving them the #4 seed. They're still a dominant team and the defending champions.
This group of five teams from 5-9 is the most difficult to seed. Carleton is the best team of the bunch, but they've lost to so many of the others that it's impossible to seed them above 8th. Georgia seems the weakest, but they turned it on at Regionals and beat UNC twice to make it to Nationals. Having played both Illinois and Texas, Illinois seems better and has the head-to-head win. If I were seeding on skill and predicted finish, I would go Carleton, Illinois, Texas, Arizona, Georgia. But because we're seeding on season results, my rankings are as follows:
5) Illinois
6) Texas
7) Arizona
8) Georgia
9) Carleton
10) UC-Santa Cruz - It's tough to put them here, especially in light of their big win over Georgia at Centex, but the Slugs are the only team at Nationals with a losing record, and they didn't start to pick it up until Sectionals and Regionals.
11) Stanford - It's been a down year results-wise for Stanford, but most of our losses have come on two days - Saturday of SB Invite and Saturday of Centex. We made finals at Stanford Invite with a win over Texas. In common opponents, we're better than UNT.
12) North Texas - UNT hasn't proven anything yet. They beat a flaky Texas team at Sectionals and then lost to them at Regionals. They have no history at Nationals and lost to Stanford last year at SB Invite. Their big win was 10-9 over Illinois at Mardi Gras, and they've lost to teams like Whitman, BC, and UCF. That being said, they have the potential for big upsets with an explosive offense, and I wouldn't want them in my pool.
13) Delaware - they've had a very unimpressive season and by all measures should be the #16 seed. Unfortunately for everyone else, they won the Metro East after Pitt faltered for the third year in a row, so now they must be above Pitt. Their out-of-region losses are all to AC and GL teams, and in their only game against a NE team, they beat UMass 11-8. Giving them the benefit of the doubt, and considering they have some Nationals pedigree at least, they get to leap over the New England teams who may have had slightly more impressive seasons. Also because Pitt does not deserve to be a #16 seed, and Delaware should get some credit for that win.
14) Pittsburgh - It's a shame that Pitt has to be so low, but now they can play spoiler and ruin a pool. This is the first Pitt team that really deserves to be in Quarters, and if they can bring it to Boulder, it's not out of reach.
15) Dartmouth - they're a solid team, but not one that should expect to make much noise in this trip to Nationals.
16) Harvard - this is an interesting year for Harvard, in that they have some very good freshmen and a bunch of seniors who are the team leaders. Next year, this will be a very different team, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them at Nationals again in two or three years.
And, as a bonus, how I would rank the 16 teams in the extremely scientific terms of "how good I think they are":
16. Delaware
15. Harvard
14. Dartmouth
13. Georgia
12. Arizona
11. North Texas
10. Texas
9. UC-Santa Cruz
8. Pittsburgh
7. Stanford (I never said I wasn't biased)
6. Illinois
5. Carleton
4. Michigan
3. Colorado
2. Wisconsin
1. Florida
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besides centex consolation, wisc's only losses are teams in the top 4. i get giving the edge to past seasons, so where is the edge for finalist of the last two years? put wisc at 2, then shift illinois and texas up to 8 and 9, and i think you got it. good post.
i love these seedings
I think it is weird that you said "But because we're seeding on season results, my rankings are as follows".
Michigan and Colorado have both had good seasons but neither has made the finals of a big tournament outside the series where as Wisconsin won Mardi Gras, TiV, Stanford, and the NCUS. Meanwhile Michigan had a PRE-quarters loss to Penn at the one tournament that could supplement their Centex results, QCTU. And as for Colorado, they didn't make bracket play at Vegas or Stanford and while they are good now, their biggest wins are against Arizona and Michigan, two teams that are good this year but have yet to make any kind of noise at Nationals.
I will say that I think Centex was good to Colorado and Michigan, and not to Wisconsin, but I think their Austin results push them to a 1 seed that they otherwise wouldn't deserve but they should still be below Wisconsin and Florida because their consistency pails in comparison.
And I also want to say that I think punishing the NE because Pitt lost sucks. Pitt lost so now you have to give Delaware the seed they have earned all season, which is probably 14/15th and you have to stick Pitt behind them.
In my opinion, Dartmouth has had a great season with good play at Vegas (they beat Whitman), they won Southerns (over teams like UNC-W and Ohio State) and took the NE for the first time ever.
I know you like Pitt but they choked, no "if's", "and's" or "but's". Delaware beat them and because Delaware was nowhere near the top of the region all year, you have to punish Pitt for losing to them. Dartmouth has had a great season and so has Harvard. I would almost go as far as to stick Pitt as 16th because that is where Maryland would be had they beaten Pitt, but I think Pitt deserves a little better.
I sometimes find myself making excuses for teams that lose but in Pitt's case, their win over Wisconsin looks even more weak than it did a month ago because they didn't win when it mattered. This is the main reason why I like Texas. They are 36-7 and regardless of who they faced, they played well. I will give you that Illinois beat Texas at Mardi Gras but Texas still made Semis and Illinois lost in Quarters. In addition, Illinois has lost to 2 teams that aren't at Nationals (SB and Minnesota, not to mention the probable 16 seed, Harvard) since then and texas has only lost to one (Oregon).
Illinois choked against Minnesota and they should have beaten Carleton. Aside from that, their glorious Centex only has wins against Stanford and Santa Cruz while Texas beat one of the teams in the finals.
This is getting long, sorry. But I think that the seedings this year aren't that hard because there is so much parity.
Yes, Pitt choked, and I see the rationale for seeding Dartmouth and Harvard above Delaware and Pitt. I don't see how you could possibly seed Dartmouth above Delaware/Pitt and Harvard below, though. So it basically comes to the strength of the NE vs the ME, and I think that this year, the ME was a stronger region in general.
Illinois may have lost to SB and Minnesota, but Texas lost to SB-X and Oregon. Illinois beat Oregon twice and Texas never faced Minnesota.
QCTU was a huge, windy tournament. Michigan obviously didn't do well in the wind, with big losses on Centex Sunday as well. But I think it's hard to ignore the HTH victory over Wisconsin in such commanding fashion.
I think HTH is most important, with tournament finishes next. Michigan played at one tournament with Wisconsin and did better and beat them HTH.
Still, if I were on Wisconsin, I would be pissed if I weren't seeded 2nd.
Thanks for the tip Jason!
In other news, I don't think Colorado has a great argument for being above Wisconsin. Also, I don't think you can put that much stock in the 2-3 game at a windy Centex. Still, whatever.
Basically, there is 1, 2-4, 5-9, 10-12, and 13-16. Any way you seed these groups works out.
Let's hear about the game that matters.. the alumni all-star showcase game!
yup sounds like something jon would do
when the hell are you going to do a nationals write up?
...i've been in the library all day every day for the past 5 days and i need a distraction since that will also be my schedule until thursday.
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