Wednesday, May 7, 2008

If I Were Jeff Kula (Nationals Seedings [Open])

This is a tough year to seed Nationals, if only because there is so much parity among teams and so much disparity between some teams' skill level and their season performance. Without too much buildup, this is how I would seed Nationals:

1) Florida - the undisputed #1, only one loss all season was to Arizona at Vegas on universe point. Brodie is healthy now, and they won Centex and the AC to earn this seed.
2) Colorado - they came to play at Centex. With Martin back they only lost to Georgia, a perennial tough game for them, and Florida 13-15 in the semis. They deservedly beat Michigan in the 3rd place game, a game where both team were going 100% to win. Giving the edge to their results later in the season and their performance at Nationals the past few years, they earn this seed over Michigan and Wisconsin.
3) Michigan - Michigan placed 4th at Centex and won Regionals handily. They had a huge Centex with wins over Wisconsin and Arizona. Universe point losses to UNC and Colorado hurt, but they're still a dominant team behind Ryan Purcell, Will Neff, and a cadre of strong sophomores.
4) Wisconsin - It seems strange to seed them so low, but they lost 3 games at Centex to Nationals teams. The two games they lost that mattered are to two teams ahead of them. Their other loss is to Pittsburgh and was in consolation. Wisconsin recovered well and won Regionals, giving them the #4 seed. They're still a dominant team and the defending champions.

This group of five teams from 5-9 is the most difficult to seed. Carleton is the best team of the bunch, but they've lost to so many of the others that it's impossible to seed them above 8th. Georgia seems the weakest, but they turned it on at Regionals and beat UNC twice to make it to Nationals. Having played both Illinois and Texas, Illinois seems better and has the head-to-head win. If I were seeding on skill and predicted finish, I would go Carleton, Illinois, Texas, Arizona, Georgia. But because we're seeding on season results, my rankings are as follows:

5) Illinois
6) Texas
7) Arizona
8) Georgia
9) Carleton

10) UC-Santa Cruz - It's tough to put them here, especially in light of their big win over Georgia at Centex, but the Slugs are the only team at Nationals with a losing record, and they didn't start to pick it up until Sectionals and Regionals.
11) Stanford - It's been a down year results-wise for Stanford, but most of our losses have come on two days - Saturday of SB Invite and Saturday of Centex. We made finals at Stanford Invite with a win over Texas. In common opponents, we're better than UNT.
12) North Texas - UNT hasn't proven anything yet. They beat a flaky Texas team at Sectionals and then lost to them at Regionals. They have no history at Nationals and lost to Stanford last year at SB Invite. Their big win was 10-9 over Illinois at Mardi Gras, and they've lost to teams like Whitman, BC, and UCF. That being said, they have the potential for big upsets with an explosive offense, and I wouldn't want them in my pool.

13) Delaware - they've had a very unimpressive season and by all measures should be the #16 seed. Unfortunately for everyone else, they won the Metro East after Pitt faltered for the third year in a row, so now they must be above Pitt. Their out-of-region losses are all to AC and GL teams, and in their only game against a NE team, they beat UMass 11-8. Giving them the benefit of the doubt, and considering they have some Nationals pedigree at least, they get to leap over the New England teams who may have had slightly more impressive seasons. Also because Pitt does not deserve to be a #16 seed, and Delaware should get some credit for that win.
14) Pittsburgh - It's a shame that Pitt has to be so low, but now they can play spoiler and ruin a pool. This is the first Pitt team that really deserves to be in Quarters, and if they can bring it to Boulder, it's not out of reach.
15) Dartmouth - they're a solid team, but not one that should expect to make much noise in this trip to Nationals.
16) Harvard - this is an interesting year for Harvard, in that they have some very good freshmen and a bunch of seniors who are the team leaders. Next year, this will be a very different team, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them at Nationals again in two or three years.

And, as a bonus, how I would rank the 16 teams in the extremely scientific terms of "how good I think they are":

16. Delaware
15. Harvard
14. Dartmouth
13. Georgia
12. Arizona
11. North Texas
10. Texas
9. UC-Santa Cruz
8. Pittsburgh
7. Stanford (I never said I wasn't biased)
6. Illinois
5. Carleton
4. Michigan
3. Colorado
2. Wisconsin
1. Florida