A National Picture

Bay Area sectionals was this past weekend, and while none of the five regional qualifiers finished where they were seeded, the final results could hardly be said to be a surprise. The top four finishers will likely take 4 of the top 5 (or even 4) seeds at Northwest Regionals, and along with UBC and Oregon are very much in the hunt for a bid to Nationals. All across the country, late-season results are turning once-boring Regionals into hotly-contested battles for one or two spots to Nationals.

Metro East
Pittsburgh is the undisputed favorite in the ME, although their loss to Penn at Roll Call makes them far from invulnerable. Penn and Maryland will not be afraid of Pitt come Regionals, and Pitt's history of slipping up and qualifying via the backdoor - losing to Delaware in 2006 and Cornell in 2007 - could hurt them more than usual this year. Pitt has a strong core of cutters and handlers that will jam the disc down your throats on the open and break sides until a favorable deep look opens up. They will beat teams with their depth and consistency - their bench can also break the mark and has no fear of cutting against another team's starting D. Look for Chris Brenenborg, Josh Suskin, and Nick Kaczmarek to make the Metro East All-Region team while Julian Hausman and MIke Plunkett compete for FOTY. Penn is led by handler Ricky Chung and receiver Andrew Bailil, and Ricky at least has improved tremendously over the past couple years. Maryland is led by the fiery Reuben Saul and defense of Adam Reis, with the cutting of Andrew Hempstead and steady handling of Sam Burnim and Mike Rubin. They also have a legitimate FOTY candidate in Freddy Tsai.

Southwest
As it's been ever since Beau pulled on Mamabird yellow, Colorado comes into Southwest Regionals as the favorite. After a shaky start at Vegas and Stanford, missing Martin Cochran and having severe handler problems, they pulled it together at Centex. Martin's return allowed Jolian to play less defense and handle again, and Chris Wicus is almost impossible to stop as he uses his long arms and legs to pivot around a mark. But for all of their superstar Bravo players, the player who seems to have been consistently good for Mamabird all season is defensive superstar Kevin Schipper, who seems good for at least one layout D a game. Arizona put together a magical run at Vegas and dealt Florida their only loss of the season on their way to a 12-11 finals loss to Wisconsin, and they've ridden that wave all the way to the second seed at SW Regionals. A quarterfinals appearance at both Stanford and Centex shows that they're not about to go away. Their loss to Texas at Stanford was without star Joe Kershner, but at Centex they were blown away by Colorado and lost to a Michigan team in the quarters that struggled to score upwind all day. Look for Austin Gregerson and Erik Gafni to lead this team with Kershner and take them all the way to Nationals. On the outside looking in is Claremont, a team that will be looking to upset Arizona in the semifinals with their big receivers coming down with discs over Arizona's big defenders. Michael Stout, Jay Schulkin, and even SW future FOTY Markham Shofner will be looking to rip down hucks from Gordon Stecklein and Daniel Bobrowsky - and even Stout and Shofner. If they can make the plays, they have a shot at making Nationals, although they'll have to beat Arizona in a tough backdoor game to do it, not to mention avoid slipping against UCSB, SDSU, or even Colorado State. If the weather is bad, UCSD might even make a run.

Central
The big question lingering from Centex is how Minnesota and Carleton match up. That question should be answered next weekend at Northwoods Sectionals, but until then, Minnesota should not consider a trip to Boulder in May out of their reach. Led by Sub Zero's Jeff Anderson and last year's FOTY Michael Arenson, the handling of Kevin Terry and Josh Davidson also plays a big role. They love to put the disc and are strong in the air, although when forced to work the disc up the field, they will struggle and get impatient. Their 5th place finish at Centex placed them ahead of both Wisconsin (7th) and Carleton (10th). Carleton is an extremely fast team and more than half of their roster played high school ultimate - meaning they have the throws of players five years their senior. They punish teams on the break side and with hucks to speed instead of height - Grant Lindsley, Christian Foster, and Patrick Roberts are Junior Worlds receivers that they added this year to the already formidable Jerome Potter. After years and years of winning Central Regionals, they will not go down without a fight. Who am I forgetting? Only the defending national champion Wisconsin Hodags. While Florida might have the most feared O-line and zone defense in the country, Wisconsin has the most dominant man defense in the country, bar none. However, Muffin's quick hucks on turnovers don't have nearly the same completion percentage that they did last season, and nobody is taken by surprise anymore. But trust that the defending champions will bring it at Regionals, and they will be up in the title hunt again this year, perhaps content to no longer be favorites and to have taken some of the pressure off. Ben Feldman has improved massively over the course of the year, and he will have to help lead a much younger Hodag team next year.

Great Lakes
It was Michigan that garnered the most attention at Centex this year, beating Wisconsin handily on Saturday behind the play of Ryan Purcell (on my Callahan ballot) and Will Neff. In addition to their superstars, they have a very strong core of sophomores who contribute both their handling skills and cutting prowess to MagnUM. However, Michigan struggled on Sunday to score upwind, although their inability to get breaks may have been related to freshman D-handler Ollie Honderd's absence (Worlds tryouts). But for all of the attention Michigan received, Illinois nearly upset eventual champions Florida in the first game Saturday morning, losing 12-13. Illinois has a very, very solid offense that throws a lot of blady forehands to receivers with only a step or two on their defender, and they complete nearly all of them. They also have a strong switching defense that creates turnovers and layout D's, and after trading with Stanford in the first half of our game at Centex, they won the second half 6-1. Lurking in the background at second-tier tournaments have been Ohio State and Notre Dame, and both teams have the skills and players to upset one of the top teams - but do they have the focus? Last year Illinois was one of the favorites to make Nationals and fell short while Indiana rose to the top - who will fall this year?

South
The South has historically been one of the shallowest regions in the country, with Texas so far ahead of the competition that their Regionals was easier than some teams Sectionals. This year, however, North Texas shocked TUFF and came away with the sectional title, a 12-7 victory, and the #1 seed at South Regionals. Kevin Richardson is the go-to guy for UNT, and their speed and athleticism makes them similar to a Claremont team with better defense. It remains to be seen whether their high-powered huck-happy offense will pass muster in a less windy situation where turnovers are more costly. Texas is still the favorite to take the first bid to Boulder, led by Stephen "Franchise" Presley, a shifty handler who makes TUFF's offense tick. Presley, along with Steven Darroh, run a handler-motion offense that attacks the break side and launches opportunistic hucks. Throw-and-go handler motion generates opportunistic cuts from their vertical stack and punishes poaches and lazy defense. But less athletic than in years past, Texas fell to the sheer power of UNT. Left out of the discussion so far are Oklahoma, Wash U, and Kansas, the Ozarks teams looking to bump out the top two seeds and take the #16 seed at Nationals. It will take a heroic performance by one of these teams to qualify, but Oklahoma's "faceless army" might be the Ozarks best bet.

Atlantic Coast
Florida rules the roost in the Atlantic Coast, and their win at Centex has nearly cemented Kurt Gibson as the Callahan winner. Their offense is nearly perfect, and their O-team defense fights ferociously to get the disc back and prevent breaks. Kurt and Brodie Smith are a formidable pair and cause matchup problems for every team in the country. Cyle Van Auken is a reliable reset, and John Windham and Chris Gibson provide usually reliable downfield options but are vulnerable to layout D's. Their zone is often illegal but so effective, as their height forces risky throws over the top that Kurt eats up from his deep deep position. The main battle in the AC is for second, as UNC, UNCW, NC State, and Georgia all believe they deserve to be in Boulder. The story of the year is the rise of UNC-Wilmington, behind the play of Rusty Ingold-Smith and the reliable leadership of Adam Pflaumer. They're fiery and streaky, and they will get into teams' heads. Their weakness is in their depth, as they wilted against Stanford in the fourth game of the day at Stanford Invite. UNC has the players and the experience to make it to the big show, but they have a history of falling to NC State. Mat Thomas, Ryan Coffield, and Eddie Alcorn lead Darkside, with physical Ring of Fire defense and youthful Los experience from their younger players contributing to their success. Noah Saul is probably the best freshman in the region, contributing as a handler all season. NC State has to overcome internal turmoil between its captains and coaching staff, but they're confident that they have the tools to make it to Boulder - as long as they're given the opportunity by their line-callers. Georgia has fallen since Dylan Tunnell left, but Greg Swanson is doing his best to bring them back. But with a shoulder injury he might not even get the chance - their 14-13 victory over Georgia Tech in the sectional finals hardly inspires confidence in their chances.

New England
It's hard to predict much from the Northeast this year, as weather and various out-of-state tournaments have produced such starkly different results. Williams must go into Regionals as the favorite after their Yale Cup victory and Santa Barbara performance, but they might even falter at Sectionals. Brown has put up inconsistent results but has much more experience after their young team finished poorly at Nationals last year. Michael Vandenberg and Jimmy Lowe run this team from behind the disc, and they play well in wind and slop. Tufts and Dartmouth are the flashy picks to make Nationals, and they met in the finals of Southerns several weeks ago. Still in the picture are Wesleyan and Harvard, who may still be missing super-freshman George Stubbs at Regionals. Fellow freshman Andre Vogt has stepped up to lead Harvard's consistent but unspectacular older core. Middlebury jumped onto the scene with a Yale Cup finals appearance, but can the skirt-wearing Pranksters survive bracket play at Regionals? It will be a surprise to see them in Boulder, but New England has the most parity at the top out of all 8 regions - including the AC and NW.

Northwest
My own region has had its fair share of turmoil this exciting college season. UBC or UCSC will take the top seed at Regionals - two teams that haven't been to Nationals in years. Stanford, coming off of four consecutive semifinal appearances, is either a #2 or #3 seed, and last year's quarterfinalist Oregon is languishing back as a likely #6. UBC is an odd team, with their baggy shorts and roster loaded with graduate students, some of whom have been playing with Furious for years. But there is no Morgan Hibbert or Oscar Pottinger, and their deep game shredded Wisconsin at Stanford Invite. But they nearly fell to Jeremy Norden-led Whitman at Sectionals and looked poor in the C-bracket at Centex. UCSC is led by Revolver's Danny Karlinsky and Nick Chapman. They're almost unstoppable at redzone offense - turnovers need to come on hucks or early in cuts to get breaks on Santa Cruz. Cal is a very solid team with a strong ho-stack offense that hucks a little recklessly but ruthlessly exploits lazy marks to romp down the break side. Alec Berg runs the O line, while Charles Denby, Choongil Fleishmann, and Erec Hillis make things happen on defense. LPC fell to third at Sectionals, but Brad Kearney, Nick Raisch, and Ernst Westphal are huge for them, while the more recognizable players Dan "Robot" Naruo and Michael "808" Liu draw more formidable matchups. Oregon has struggled this year, with all of their "big three" players suffering injuries. Despite that, Dusty Becker and Kevin Stout led Ego to huge leads over almost every team they played at Centex before they crumbled. If they can maintain those leads at Regionals, another Nationals appearance is in the cards. Stanford has struggled on offense this year with drops and throwaways, but Mark Sherwood is a difference-maker, and if players 4-7 on the line can step up and make plays against other team's 4-7 defenders, Stanford can make it to Nationals again.